Systems

A running list of useful frameworks, mental models, heuristics, and first principles:

Decision-making / Metrics

• Abilene Paradox
• Bounded Rationality
• Goodhart’s Law
• Hats, Haircuts, Tattoos
• Secretary problem
• Watermelon Effect

Economics

• Disposition Effect – Investors’ tendency to sell winning investments too early while holding losing investments too long
• Sunk Cost Fallacy – Continuing an endeavor due to past investment despite irrationality
• Opportunity Cost – The loss of potential gain from alternatives when one option is chosen
• Comparative Advantage (Ricardo) – Economic benefit from specialization even when one party has absolute advantage
• Time Preference Theory – How present consumption is valued versus future consumption
• Tragedy of the Commons – How individual rational behavior leads to depleting shared resources
• Moral Hazard – When parties take risks because they don’t bear the full costs
• Principal-Agent Problem – Conflicts of interest when someone acts on another’s behalf
• Cantillon Effect – How money creation benefits those closest to the source
• Gresham’s Law – “Bad money drives out good” in currency circulation

Epistemology

• I’m a Constructivist, but also believe it’s hard to get smarter without reading
• Literacy Threshold Theory – meaningful knowledge acquisition requires reaching certain threshold levels of literacy¹.
• We’ve got a growing knowledge-wisdom gap. (E.F. Schumacher’s “Small is Beautiful”)
• Be ever vigilant of fallacies (e.g., argumentum ad populum).

History/Civilization

• Beware of discarding things just because they’re old (Cut flowers theory, Chesterton’s Fence, Lindy Effect).
• Tytler’s Cycle – are we headed toward bondage? (see Safetyism post)
• Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies

Organization

• Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy
• Value Capture v. Value Creation Loop – when firms/orgs can extract high margins there is reduced pressure to allocate resources efficiently (See Liberal Arts post)
• Conway’s Law

Psychology/Behavior

• Cognitive biases (Availability Heuristic, etc.) (See Safetyism post)
• Status/Signaling (Veblen goods, stated vs. revealed preferences)
• Personal Utility Function and Financial Calculation Gap (gap between monetary returns and full economic utility) (e.g., housing rent vs. buy calculation)

Social Dynamics

• Network effects and Dunbar’s Number (see FB post)
• Game theory concepts (Prisoner’s Dilemma, coordination problems)
• Nassim Taleb’s Skin in the Game principle

Technology

• I’m a tech enthusiast, but not a tech solutionist (i.e. it ain’t gonna save us): Jevons Paradox, Ellul Principle, Collingridge Dilemma, Heidegger’s Critique of Tech, Neil Postman’s Technopoly.
• It’s ambitious, but we should work toward a decentralized web (see Farcaster post and Read Write Own post)

Miscellanea

• Astrobiology: Silentium universi
• Soteriology / Teleology: (See Catholicism post)
• Pareto Principle – which even extends to food (Hara hachi bu)