Systems

My running list of frameworks, mental models, heuristics, and first principles I find interesting/useful:

Decision-making / Metrics

• Abilene Paradox
• Bounded Rationality
• Goodhart’s Law
• Secretary problem
• Watermelon Effect
• Limited info: Bezos’ 70% Rule, Hats, Haircuts, Tattoos, Lasers and Compasses¹

Economics

• Behavorial Finance > Efficient Market Hypothesis
• Disposition Effect
• Sunk Cost Fallacy
• Opportunity Cost
• Comparative Advantage (Ricardo)
• Time Preference Theory
• Tragedy of the Commons
• Moral Hazard
• Principal-Agent Problem
• E.F. Schumacher’s “Small is Beautiful”
• Inequality frameworks:
  • Cantillon Effect
  • The “Great Decoupling” (Brynjolfsson/McAfee)
  • “Hollowing out” hypothesis (Autor)
  • Piketty’s r > g formula
  • Skill-biased technological change (SBTC)

Epistemology

• Literacy Threshold Theory²
• We’ve got an ever-widening knowledge-wisdom gap
• Be ever vigilant of fallacies (e.g., argumentum ad populum)
• Dunning-Kruger Effect
• Replication crisis

History/Civilization

• Beware of discarding things just because they’re old (Cut flowers theory, Chesterton’s Fence, Lindy Effect).
• Tytler’s Cycle – are we headed toward bondage? (see Safetyism post)
• Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies

Organization

• Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy
• Value Capture v. Value Creation Loop – when firms/orgs can extract high margins there is reduced pressure to allocate resources efficiently (e.g., bloat in US four-year universities as described in my Liberal Arts post)
• Conway’s Law

Problem-solving

• Kidlin’s Law

Psychology/Behavior

• Cognitive biases (Availability Heuristic, etc.) (See Safetyism post)
• Status/Signaling (Veblen goods, stated vs. revealed preferences)
• Personal Utility Function and Financial Calculation Gap (gap between monetary returns and full economic utility) (e.g., housing rent vs. buy calculation)
• Enantiodromia (referenced in Orthopraxy post)

Social Dynamics

• Network effects and Dunbar’s Number (see FB post)
• Game theory concepts (Prisoner’s Dilemma, coordination problems)
• Nassim Taleb’s Skin in the Game principle

Technology

• Jevons Paradox
• Ellul Principle
• Collingridge Dilemma
• Heidegger’s Critique of Tech
• Neil Postman’s Technopoly

Miscellanea

• Pareto Principle – which even extends to food (Hara hachi bu)